Why the Duty Could Double to 72.2%: The EU Absorption Investigation Explained

When the EU's definitive anti-dumping duties on Chinese multilayered wood flooring took effect on 15 July 2025, most importers treated the residual 36.1% rate as the new fixed cost of the China route. Less than a year later, that assumption is under formal review. In April 2026, the European Commission opened an absorption investigation into the measure — a procedure that can end with duties recalculated up to a ceiling of 72.2%, double the rate most importers pay today.

This article explains what an absorption investigation actually is, who asked for it, when a decision will land, and — most importantly — what an importer with orders in the pipeline should be doing about it now. For the full background on the underlying measure, rates and border mechanics, see our EU anti-dumping duties guide.

What "absorption" means in trade-defence terms

An anti-dumping duty is designed to work through prices. When Regulation (EU) 2025/1342 put duties of 21.3% to 36.1% on multilayered wood flooring from China (CN code 4418 75 00), the intended effect was straightforward: imported flooring becomes correspondingly more expensive inside the EU, the price pressure on European producers eases, and the injury the investigation found is removed.

Absorption is what happens when exporters neutralise that mechanism. Instead of the duty flowing through to EU resale prices, the producer absorbs it — cutting the export price by roughly the amount of the duty, so that the landed, duty-paid price in the EU ends up back where it was before the measure existed. The duty is still collected at the border, but its market effect evaporates. From the perspective of the EU industry the measure was meant to protect, nothing has changed except a line on the customs declaration.

EU trade law anticipates this. Where there is evidence that export prices have fallen after the imposition of duties — so that the measure is not producing its intended effect on EU market prices — the Commission can open an absorption investigation and, if the suspicion is confirmed, recalculate the duties upwards to restore the measure's bite.

That is the procedure now running against Chinese multilayered wood flooring.

Who requested it, and why the stakes are high

The investigation was opened following a request by the European Parquet Federation, the body representing EU parquet producers — the same industry on whose behalf the original case was brought.

The context explains the urgency. The EU multilayered-wood-flooring market is worth roughly €1.3 billion and supports around 10,500 jobs. The EU parquet market bottomed in 2024 and stabilised in 2025 — which means the duties arrived at precisely the moment the industry was trying to consolidate a fragile recovery. If dumped-price imports simply reappeared under the duty via absorbed export prices, that recovery would be undercut before it took hold. For the complainant industry, this is not a technical follow-up; it is the difference between a measure that works and one that exists only on paper.

Worth registering on the import side, too: the original investigation found provisional dumping margins of 89% to 335%. The definitive duties came in far lower only because of the lesser-duty rule — the final rates were capped at the injury margin rather than the full dumping margin. In other words, there is enormous headroom between the duties actually imposed and the pricing behaviour the investigation documented. An exporter facing a 36.1% duty against a triple-digit dumping margin has both the motive and the margin room to absorb it.

The timeline and decision window

The absorption investigation covers imports made between April 2025 and March 2026 — essentially the first year under the definitive measure, plus the run-up to its entry into force. The procedural clock is fixed:

That gives importers a defined risk window: any goods contracted now for arrival from late 2026 onwards could clear customs under a materially different duty regime than the one they were priced against. Anti-dumping duties are assessed at the point of import, not at the point of contract — a distinction that matters enormously when a rate change is on the calendar.

What 72.2% does to a landed price

The regulation's architecture caps the recalculated duty at a maximum of 72.2%. To see what that means in cash terms, take the standard worked example from our pillar guide: 1,000 m² at a CIF price of €18.00/m² from a non-listed producer.

At today's residual rate of 36.1%, the duty is €6.50/m², and the shipment lands at €24.50/m² excluding VAT.

At 72.2%, the duty on the same €18.00 CIF price becomes €13.00/m² — and the landed cost rises to €31.00/m² excluding VAT. The duty alone would then be nearly three-quarters of the invoice price. A specification that was bought "for €18" would carry a true cost above €31 before inland haulage, storage or a single hour of compliance work.

Run your own supplier's numbers — CIF price, volume, rate scenario — through the landed-cost calculator; it includes a toggle for the 72.2% scenario precisely because this is now a live planning case rather than a hypothetical.

The single-rate risk: why named producers are exposed too

Importers buying from one of the producers named individually in the regulation's Annex — those with rates between 21.3% and 32.1% — may feel insulated. They should not.

The absorption procedure carries a second, less-discussed outcome: if the Commission finds evidence of collusion between producers, it can apply a single rate to all producers. The individual rates that currently reward buying from a named mill would disappear, and every Chinese producer would face the same duty — potentially at the recalculated, higher level.

For an importer, this means the risk cannot be fully hedged by supplier selection within China. A sourcing strategy built on a 21.3% named-producer rate is exposed to the same decision window as one built on the 36.1% residual rate.

What importers should be doing now

None of this requires panic; it requires dated, contractual thinking. Four practical steps:

1. Map your contract timing against the decision window. Any order that ships from China with an expected EU arrival after 28 November 2026 could, in the worst case, clear customs under a revised rate. Duty liability crystallises at import. If your purchase contracts and your customer quotations both assume 36.1%, you are carrying the gap between 36.1% and 72.2% on your own book.

2. Put duty clauses in writing — on both sides. On the purchase side, negotiate who bears a duty increase between order and arrival: a price-adjustment or cancellation clause tied to the duty rate at the time of import is a reasonable ask given a publicly scheduled decision. On the sales side, avoid fixed-price commitments to your own customers that extend across the decision window without a corresponding pass-through mechanism. A duty clause you cannot mirror downstream is a risk transfer to yourself.

3. Re-cost every China-sourced specification at both rates. A line that clears your margin threshold at 36.1% may be underwater at 72.2%. Doing this exercise now — with the calculator, per specification, per customer — tells you in advance which parts of your range survive the worst case and which need a fallback before the decision, not after it.

4. Establish a European supply line before you need it. The strongest hedge against a duty you cannot control is a source that carries no duty at all. European engineered oak is quoted delivered, in EUR — no anti-dumping exposure, no absorption-case uncertainty, no exchange-rate risk — and stock held inside the EU turns lead times from shipping seasons into days. Our engineered oak collections are stocked in Germany, with more than 50 variations and delivery within 5 working days. Dual-sourcing does not require abandoning the China route; it requires having a qualified alternative live and sampled before February 2027, so that a 72.2% decision is a spreadsheet update rather than a supply crisis.

The decision is dated. Your response shouldn't wait for it.

Between 28 November 2026 and 28 February 2027, the Commission will either confirm absorption — with duties recalculated up to 72.2%, possibly at a single rate for all producers — or close the case and leave the current rates standing until the measure's expiry around July 2030. Both outcomes are plannable. What is not plannable is discovering, on a container already at sea, that your landed cost just rose by €6.50/m².

If Chinese flooring is anywhere in your 2026–2027 supply plan, do the arithmetic now and line up the alternative in parallel: request samples of a comparable European specification, or contact us for a delivered quote you can put directly next to your duty-inclusive numbers.